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The Future Cost of War: Projecting Iraq Spending for 2005
At the current rate of spending, the Pentagon is likely to run out of money in early 2005 for its operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The two military efforts are costing as much as $5 billion a month, and the Pentagon is already tapping into its $25 billion contingency reserve fund.
The Bush administration plans to ask for as much as $75 billion more at the start of 2005, if Bush is reelected. The request, if approved by Congress, would make these wars some of the most expensive in history, according to a Yale University economist interviewed by the Washington Post.
The price of war - a history
Yale economist William D. Nordhaus went to the trouble of translating the costs of previous U.S. wars into inflation-adjusted terms and found that the Iraq war was quickly becoming one of the most expensive in U.S. history.
Nordhaus estimated that the United States spent just under $200 billion on World War I and about $500 billion on eight years in Vietnam. By fall of 2005, the Iraq war will probably have cost around $250 billion in just 2.5 years.
There are many reasons for the high cost of the war, including rising fuel costs and expensive high-tech equipment. In addition, the war has become more expensive as it progresses because of the growing insurgency against U.S. troops.
What the cost may mean
The cost of combat has steadily increased. Congress allocated $62.4 billion to combat in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2003 and $65 billion to the cause in 2004. If congressional and Pentagon officials’ estimates are accurate, 2005 will cost upwards of $70 billion.
The trend suggests that the war is escalating, not slowing down, so the conflict will probably last much longer than the Bush administration first suggested. And by projecting heavy spending in the coming year, the Pentagon has departed from the Bush administration’s optimism about the Iraq war.
In addition, current Iraq spending is at odds with claims made by Mitch Daniels, the White House budget director. Before the invasion, Daniels predicted that the Iraq war would be affordable because the offensive would be swift and Iraq would be able to finance its own reconstruction through its oil resources. The unforeseen uprising there has dashed those early predictions.
The next Congress will be concerned with...
The next Congress (the 109th) is likely to consider a war supplemental as one of its first orders of business. No matter who wins the election, the president will need to ask Congress for more money for the war, and the House and Senate will be expected to pass a funding supplemental before the President’s Day recess in February.
In early 2005, Congress is likely to debate the war supplemental along with a series of other spending bills. These bills will affect one another. For example, it will be hard for the president to veto a spending bill with funding for veterans’ emergency medical care while signing a bill that pours more money into war. Lawmakers are likely to take advantage of this situation and propose measures that are difficult to reject within the context of funding Iraq.
What do you think about Iraq spending?
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Update Posted on: 10/29/2004