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India: Nuclear threat or U.S.- China strategy?

On March 2, 2006, President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India announced in a joint press conference that they had reached a "historical" agreement for nuclear cooperation between the United States and India, and vowed to continue expanding the growing ties between the two nations.

Under the new deal, India will subject its civilian nuclear program to international inspections for the first time, but not its military facilities, and continue a ban on testing nuclear weapons. The agreement will help India fulfill its enormous energy needs by permitting the country to buy the fuel and technology necessary for making nuclear power. Although Bush described the agreement as both "historical" and "necessary," critics both at home and abroad have questioned the wisdom of the deal, which reverses both United States and international nonproliferation policies since the Cold War. Singh has also faced opposition in the form of tens of thousands of Muslims and Communists taking to the streets to protest what they consider "succumbing to U.S. imperialist pressures."

In their joint statement, Bush and Singh invoked the democracy connection as a natural reason for the United States and India to form an agreement on nuclear energy and other issues. However, the leaders of the world’s two largest democracies, both Bush and Singh must still sell the agreement to their citizens before it becomes a reality.

The Long Thaw: The United States and India since the Cold War

One reason that that nuclear agreement is important is that it represents the end of a period of tension and ill-will between the United States and India since the Cold War, when India unofficially aligned with the Soviet Union. Tensions increased in 1998 when the U.S. imposed harsh economic sanctions in response to India detonating a nuclear device.

Although President Bush’s visit to India followed a groundbreaking visit by President Bill Clinton in 2000, the shift toward a partnership between India and the U.S. owes more to global realities than diplomatic finesse.

Not only is the economy expanding at record rates, but India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous nation by 2050. These factors are key toward understanding both India’s enormous need for new sources of energy, and the United State’s increasing willingness to regard India as an essential partner in trade, defense and other areas.

Indian insubordination to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

One barrier to cooperation between the United States and India in the past has been that India has never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the international treaty which is widely credited with limiting the spread of nuclear weapons. Under the NPT the five acknowledged nuclear weapons states - the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France and China - are required not to transfer any nuclear weapons or technology to non-nuclear states. Non-nuclear states must not acquire or produce nuclear weapons or explosive devices and are subject to international inspections to insure that they do not misuse nuclear supplies meant for peaceful uses such as generating power.

In 1998 India became what is called a nuclear pariah when it conducted tests of nuclear weapons and declared that, "India is now a nuclear weapons state." Today India has accumulated a substantial arsenal or nuclear weapons, which it says is necessary to balance the nuclear weapons of China and Pakistan, another nuclear rogue.

Under the international agreement and U.S. law, American companies are forbidden to sell commercial nuclear technology and equipment to nuclear pariah states. The nuclear agreement between the U.S. and India will be groundbreaking in that it reverses India’s nuclear pariah status by carving out an exception in the NPT.

The India exception: recognition of reality or slippery slope?

Critics contend that making an exception for India will undermine the NPT and increase the spread of nuclear weapons by sending the message that international regulations on nuclear proliferation will not be enforced. They say that this is particularly troubling because it comes at a time when the U.S. is leading the fight to limit the nuclear programs of countries like Iran and North Korea.

In addition, some fear that legitimizing India’s nuclear weapons program while not extending a similar deal to Pakistan (which has proved to be a dangerous proliferation risk) could destabilize the already-delicate balance of power in the region and lead to an arms race, or worse.

Proponents of the plan argue that the agreement acknowledges the reality of India’s growing status as a world power and existing nuclear program, and will improve the current situation by putting a large part of that program under international controls for the first time.

Bush administration officials also cited India’s record as a responsible nuclear state which has imposed voluntary safeguards and export restrictions on its nuclear programs in the past.

Economic effects: trade between the U.S. and India

While international strategic concerns might seem abstract, the nuclear agreement is the centerpiece of a larger agenda for economic cooperation between the United States and India which will have real effects for the economies of both countries.

The most direct effect of the agreement will be to make it possible for India to buy military technology from American companies. Pentagon officials said that they expect India to purchase as much as $5 billion worth of equipment as a result of the deal if it is approved by Congress. But as the Indian economy continues to grow, military spending may only be the tip of the iceberg.

U.S. leaders hope that by stimulating India’s economy the agreement will increase India’s demand for U.S. goods and help to reverse our escalating trade deficit with India, which has nearly doubled between 2001-2005: to more than $10 billion. For United States citizens, this could mean increasing wages and the creation of new jobs.

China: ‘The elephant in the room’

A more immediate effect for U.S. consumers is that helping India produce nuclear power keeps world oil prices down by reducing its demand for oil, a factor which will become even more relevant as China’s demand for oil continues to grow.

In any discussion of U.S. foreign policy, China is the proverbial ‘Elephant in the room.’ For a thoughtful, in-depth discussion about China’s enormous economic growth and the growing connections with China click here to listen to WomenMatter Facts & Trade-Offs: "China & U.S.-Us and Them."

Philosophy

The debate over the nuclear agreement between the U.S and India has centered on the significance of international agreements in a changing global economy. When Congress votes on whether to make the agreement law they will weigh the need to curb nuclear proliferation against the potential to improve the U.S. economy, and reevaluate the importance of U.S. compliance with international treaties. Before they do, we each need to understand the issue and weigh in with our representatives about what we want them to do.

What do you think? Is it fair to make an exception in the NPT for India? How much should India’s good record on proliferation count? Should the U.S. honor international agreements if they conflict with our economic interests? Would it make more sense to judge our policies on a case-by-case basis?

Your input matters

Your representatives in Congress DO care what you think. Especially now -- 2006 is an election year and many representatives will be looking to reconnect with their constituents. Let your congressmen and women know what you think! Give your senators a piece of your mind! To find your reps, click here.

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Update Posted on: 4/16/2006