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How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb? Iran goes Nuclear

Once upon a time, school children hid under their desks during well-rehearsed air-raid drills, and people built fallout shelters in their backyards. The Cold War seems like the distant past, but are we entering a new arms race? Will the nuclear threat feel real again?

Like the Cold War, today’s tension with the Middle East is a product of conflicting ideologies. The West values democracy and capitalism while key players in the Middle East want to preserve tradition and religion. Of course, the differences in philosophies are wider and deeper than that, but the result is the same: both sides want to protect their point of view and way of life no matter the high (nuclear) stakes.

Iran goes nuclear

The long-term disagreement over Iran’s nuclear program has heated up in 2006. It became almost too-hot-to-handle when the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced Iran’s research on new ways to enrich uranium. He also declared that Iran had successfully enriched uranium to 3.5 percent purity, the level used to produce nuclear power.

Iran claims that it wants to develop nuclear energy only, not nuclear bombs. But the United States and the United Nations are skeptical. The UN Security Council has ordered Iran to halt its nuclear development, and the International Atomic Energy Agency is questioning Iranian officials about the project.

Iran claims that it has the right to develop nuclear power to take care of its energy needs, a topic which is central to the issue.

Energy

Gas prices are at a high of $74 a barrel, in part because of anxiety over and speculation about the Iran conflict.

In addition to supply and demand, pure speculation about what may happen in the future affects oil prices now. Expectations of higher demand and lower supply keep prices high. Anticipation of greater supply edges prices back.

But high prices are also due to actual supply shortages because of violence in Nigeria, the world’s eighth largest oil exporter. In Port Harcourt, an oil city, a car bomb and other militia violence has interrupted oil production and distribution.

Further, China’s increasing demand for oil raises prices and complicates negotiations with Iran. China has invested significantly in Iran and depends on them for oil. As part of the U.N. Security Council, China might be reticent to impose harsh sanctions on Iran. George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao discussed these matters at Hu’s first meeting at the White House.

World affair

In addition to the U.S., the Middle East, Africa, and China, the issue reaches yet another piece of the world. Russia is deeply involved in Iran’s nuclear program. In fact, Russia’s state atomic energy agency plans to help Iran build a $1 billion nuclear reactor. The U.S. is trying to persuade Russia to drop the project.

In Sum

U.S. officials speculate that Iran could build an atomic bomb as soon as 2010. World negotiation and cooperation are necessary to keep that from happening. With its rich oil reserves, Iran is in a good place to bargain; with its campaign in Iraq, the U.S. is not.

Analysts say that Ahmadinejad must believe that the U.S. is capable of military action before Iran will negotiate seriously. But it’s possible that U.N. sanctions could have an effect too. At this point, the White House has said very little about a military operation in Iran, though Bush has said that it is a possibility.

Do you approve of attacking Iran? How should the U.S. handle the problem of nuclear proliferation? How are gas prices affecting your family?

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Update Posted on: 4/24/2006