Seat Change: Congressional Seats Move toward the South and West

Every ten years, the U.S. Census Bureau does its thing, and the House of Representatives has to shift seats to match the shift in population.

Why do we care, since the next census isn’t until 2010? Because parties have begun to prepare by looking at the latest 2007 Census Information, released at the end of last year. And those who are already elected will create the new districts, giving easily defended seats and seniority to fellow party members.

Geographically, people are moving from the Midwest and Northeast to the West and South, so the former are going to lose seats and the latter are going to gain them.

More specifically, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania are likely to lose at least one seat apiece while Texas would gain at least two and as many as four seats. Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Utah would gain at least one seat each.

Of course, the census data could change by then, but that’s the way the wind is blowing.

What does this mean for National and Local Politics?

The 2010 reapportionment would require state-by-state redistricting in 2011 and 2012, which will be controlled by legislatures and governors. A state that loses one or more U.S. House districts will have to merge districts, which means making politically difficult choices. In states that gain House seats, adding new districts will be equally political, but will create more winners than losers.

The 2010 reapportionment also will influence three presidential elections in 2012, 2016 and 2020 since each state’s allocation in the Electoral College — the process by which the United States elects the president every four years — is the sum of its seats in the U.S. Senate, where each state has two regardless of population, and the U.S. House, which is apportioned according to population.

The one exception is Washington D.C., which has never been given full congressional representation, and so is unaffected by reapportionment, but has three electoral votes, the same as the nation’s smallest states, under the 23rd Amendment to the Constitution that was ratified in 1961.

To give you an idea of the national picture:

If the 2004 presidential election were replayed under the estimated 2007 reapportionment of House seats, President Bush would have received 289 electoral votes, three more than the 286 he actually received, with 270 needed for a majority. President Bush won all six states that would gain a cumulative seven House seats in a 2007 reapportionment. He also won four states — Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri and Ohio — that would lose one seat apiece if the reshuffle happened today.

Political strategists use redistricting to engineer the system in a way that benefits them. They divide state's districts into “safe seats,” which enable incumbents to get re-elected time and again.

Creating these “safe seats” effectively ends competitive general elections, so the only real partisan fights are in the primaries. In a 7% turnout primary, 3.6% of the total voting population makes a majority. This explains the unbalanced influence of ideological activists and the congressional shift away from the political center.

For more on redistricting, click here.

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