Reading the Election: How Important was Gay Marriage?

Journalists, pollsters, and political activists are all making claims about the effect of gay marriage on the election. Many commentators are saying that it was a defining issue, that it cost Kerry the presidency, and that it has divided the nation.

Both Republicans and Democrats are calling gay marriage the issue, claiming the Bush victory to be a response to the Massachusetts decision to legalize same-sex marriage in that state.

But are these claims well founded? How can pollsters, journalists and politicians single out an issue and call it the most important one? Did the election really tip on gay marriage?

A discerning look at the polls

Claims that gay marriage swung the election are often based on polls in which voters cited "moral values" as their main concern. But a recent study conducted by the Pew Research Center found that different voters define the term "moral values" differently. Some voters consider abortion, stem cell research, and gay marriage to be issues concerned with "moral values," as the mainstream media and pollsters do, but other voters named helping the poor and a candidate’s honesty as "moral values."

Further, the Pew study found that voters named "moral values" as their most important issue if and only if it was a choice provided by pollsters. But when voters were asked to name their most important issue and were not presented with a list, Iraq and the economy topped out.

Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center, explained to the Associated Press that "moral values" is an appealing phrase to many voters, so it is often picked when offered as a possible answer choice.

Gay marriage is not the only issue

Commentators of all political persuasions have called gay marriage the issue that decided the election. Even prominent Democrats like former president Bill Clinton are pointing to it as an explanation for John Kerry’s loss. Gay rights activists say that the attempt to isolate gay marriage as the pivotal election issue is both inaccurate and homophobic.

It’s doubtful that the election hinged on a single issue, especially when the electorate is evenly divided on a number of matters including Iraq, healthcare, and the economy.

Since Americans are so diverse, different issues get different voters to the polls. Political parties use the same tactics that advertisers use: they divide voters into demographic groups,often county by county - especially in key states - and then run campaign ads targeted to those groups. A candidate’s campaign may focus on gun control in one county and gay marriage in the next.

Gay Marriage Bans

11 states had same-sex marriage bans on their November 2nd ballots. Voters in North Dakota, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Oklahoma, Utah and Oregon approved marriage bans, even though all of these states except Oregon already have laws prohibiting gay and lesbian marriages.

Eight states - Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Michigan, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Utah – banned civil unions as well. Mississippi, Montana, and Oregon prohibited same-sex marriage only.

In many cases, the same-sex marriage bans were put on the ballot through petition drives conducted by church-sponsored groups.

Many political commentators consider gay marriage to be a deciding factor in the election because three pivotal states - Ohio, Michigan, and Oregon - all had same-sex marriage bans on their ballots, a factor which may have drawn more Bush supporters to the polls. But Kerry won more votes in these states than Al Gore did in 2000, when gay marriage was not an issue. And since voter turnout was high across the country, there are clearly a variety of issues that brought voters to the polls.

Gay rights groups plan to counter a few of these measures with lawsuits, but they aren’t putting together a widespread legal effort for fear of Republican retaliation. Many gay rights activists feel that continuing to push for same-sex marriage will merely encourage the Bush administration’s effort to pass a constitutional amendment that would ban gay marriage.

What do you think?

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Update Posted on: 11/18/2004